Short-term trend analysis is counting paper clips while your office falls down. Meanwhile, long-term trends grind the UK economy like glaciers. If we ignore them for growth percentile debates, they will grind us to scree.
Turn your back on the Brexit debate (you'll feel better) and look at our ageing population. By 2050, 50% of the U.K.'s population will be over 65 and the retired will outnumber the working 3 to 1.
Ultimately, the only way to pay for this is a combination of higher taxes, targeted (not universal) state provision and people paying for themselves. Of course, tax rises and cutting universal benefits is electoral measles. No one goes near a politician who has them.
This creates an opportunity for the private sector, particularly those with long term capital. The best bet in UK commercial real estate for the next 30 years is the "grey market". The richest segment of the population is now pensioners, so housing and caring for them can create stable, long-term income. In unstable times stable income is as rare as a golden zimmerframe. Expect institutions and funds to explode into the senior living market and then dominate it for decades to come.
That is why it is still too early to say definitively whether the robust state of the UK economy today means the forecasts for economic pain made before the Brexit vote can now be safely ignored.